30 Minute Blog: The Sad State of the Presidential Race

Goodness it's hard to keep a blog up. It's like the damn gym...You go, you feel great, you take ONE day off for a good reason and a day turns into two, into a week...

I really need to set aside 30 minutes/day to do this. No matter how bad some of the results may be! I have some topics in mind. I think I'll be posting more over the next few weeks!

On to the topic-du-jour.

OK. Like almost everybody, certainly the GOP establishment, I underestimated Trump. Early on in the primaries I wrote a blog predicting  that his popularity was sure to fade once the field started to thin. That amateur hour would be over once things really got going by the Summer the stage would be set for a battle royale of Hillary vs. Jeb.

I guess I got it half right - although Bill's wife certainly did her part to make me completely wrong, more on that later.

Jeb Bush - what a mess that turned out to be!.I actually believe he IS the "smart Bush." Say what you want about George Bush Sr - but he is a brilliant man who accomplished a lot - check his resume. As time went on it was obvious that Jeb also had the charisma of his Dad and lacked the "folksy charm" (to put it nicely) of his brother. His "please applaud" moment was cringeworthy. It knocked his campaign from life support to dead. I definitely got it wrong there.

In regards to Trump, he capitalized on a large (much bigger than I understood) segment of Republican voters who have intense disdain for anything having to do with the current Government. He has run a campaign with zero substance, laughing all the way. He understood. His main appeal is that he's not Senator Trump, Governor Trump - just an outsider who didn't give a hoot about playing the game by the old rules.

The lack of a formidable challenger certainly helped. It was almost comical how Kasich's name was in the conversation as long as it was. The guy won one primary. Nobody took him seriously except the media.

Oh - and the unabashed racists love him.

On the left it's not as bad, but it's hardly good. Six months ago it was generally accepted that Hillary was running unopposed. Bernie Sanders trailed by exponential margins and was mocked by talk show host for looking like that crazy Dr. from the Back to the Future movies. He was an unabashed socialist. He was old. REALLY old.

And yet - no candidate was able to connect with young voters better than him. He's won. He's won a LOT. 18 primaries as of this writing. If you're going by delegates - he's won 45%, He'd still be in the game except Clinton has 93% of the SUPER delegates.  It's a crappy system - but Hillary got screwed the same way in 2008.

While Hillary was never seriously challenged, she did manage to remind us that she's still an awful politician. She looks just plain uncomfortable, stiff, with people on the campaign trail.

Hillary should win the general election going away. Despite the vitriol that Republicans will spew, they continue to neglect that only appealing to straight white guys isn't enough to win the general election. Donald Trump has alienated a LOT of the voting segment - and yes the Republicans need a decent portion of the black and hispanic vote if they want to win. They don't appear to want to win.

But Mrs. Clinton faces her own challenges. You can make it about emails, Bhengazi, or policy all you want, but the fact is too many is that a strong man is a leader, a strong woman a bitch.  The vitriolic attacks she's going to face are going to be ugly - and she really needs to step up her game from her performance in the primaries. Fox News is already fawning all over themselves to kiss up to Trump - who essentially made this same news channel look like fools throughout the process. Trump will get 42% of the vote no matter what he does. Probably closer to 45%. Very few people vote on issues anymore - they vote what their favorite new channel tells them to.

Is anybody inspired? God no. Hillary began her run for the White House the second her husband passed the torch in 2000. Like Bob Dole, John McCain and Mitt Romney you get the impression she's the nominee because it's her turn - not because anyone is really excited about it.

Of course elections bring out the worst in social media. Get ready for nonstop memes and links to stories on biased websites. It's more painful every time. Dialogue is dead - and this election proves it's not going to improve anytime soon.

The Ugly Side of the Republican Party

OK, I didn't see this coming. Not many people did. Certainly not the GOP "establishment."

The problem that the GOP was able to carefully avoid for years is that Donald Trump's hate represents a significant portion of their base. For a good many Republicans, big government isn't a problem.  The poorest states invariably vote red - they NEED big government more than they care to admit. And these Republicans aren't too concerned about the Capital Gains tax. They don't understand the Affordable Care Act. And their right to bear arms has not been challenged.

Donald Trump has no real ideology. He's proud, almost brazen about this. He was not a naive 20-something when he was basically a Democrat. He doesn't answer any questions in the debates he dominates. He's not the self-made man American's love. I may disagree with Mitt Romney and John McCain on ideological levels - but I never doubted their character.

There is a segment of America that simply never wanted to accept Obama because of the color of his skin. It's not playing the race card - it's an undeniable truth. Donald Trump and his "birther" crap spoke to this segment.

On election night in 2012, when it became obvious that President Obama was going to win a second term, I gleefully headed to Fox News. Yes - I got a perverse pleasure of watching them come up with excuses for America re-electing such an awful Commander-in-Chief.

I wasn't disappointed.

Karl Rove couldn't accept what Fox News' own pollsters had concluded: that the incumbent had won Ohio, thus giving him the election. His meltdown on live TV was classic stuff.

But the best, and the worst, was yet to come.  Bill O'Reilly, the undeniable face of Fox News whose show has been the most popular cable news show for longer than I care to think about, offered his very telling perspective on why Obama had basically cruised to victory. It was almost like the member of a secret society leaking their most sacred of secrets. It was the most telling segment in recent history about the current "party of Lincoln."



Yes folks. Obama won because he appealed to the people that want government handouts. "They want stuff." He goes further and explains who these cretins are: minorities. 20 years ago, when we had "traditional" (white) America we wouldn't have to deal with a black president. Now we do - too many minorities.

Some of it he said - some of it was more than implied.

Not every Republican is of this school of thought. For some it actually IS about taxes, big government, school choice, hell even abortion. But for a significant portion, enough that Donald Trump seems to be on a collision course with the nomination, are rallying around him for no other reason than he seems to have a significant disdain for minorities.

Here are the four main characteristics of Trump supporters: They are largely uneducated, they think they don't have a political voice, they have a problem with "outsiders" (foreigners), and they live in parts of the country where racial resentment is the most rampant.

I hesitate to generalize about a party that makes up such a large segment of the population. I have black friends who are solidly Republican. I don't agree with everything on the Democratic party platform.

Remember, there are very few states where Trump has carried more than 50% of the vote. He has largely benefited from a weak overall field, and up until now a large field where one candidate could win with a relatively small percentage of votes. But Trump supporters are single issue voters: Fear is their ideology. Fear that blacks and foreigners will take over. It has never been about policy - many Trump supporters benefit from the "welfare state" they claim to despise.

Underestimating Trump's appeal led to a mess in the GOP, but it could lead to a bigger mess in America. This country has historically accepted black men in leadership positions prior to women (black women get the ultimate shaft has been given to black women but that's another story).

Hillary should defeat Donald - but the vitriol is coming. Don't think for a second that many of the GOP supporters who are trying to distance themselves from Trump won't rally behind him come the convention.

60 to 40 is as wide a margin as we'll ever see in a general election. Given that the "news channels" do nothing but give people the talking points they want to here rather than present the whole story, I would imagine a landslide in this day and age would be 56-44. It won't be a landslide under the best of circumstances. If Hillary continues to run a second-rate campaign - she certainly hasn't learned much from her husband - it could be VERY close. If a significant third-party candidate emerges she could certainly lose.

To say that would be an embarrassment would be a serious understatement.

And should the day come that Trump wins the nomination - Fox News will embrace him. It will be comical - but the irony will be lost on those that worship at the altar or Roger Ailes.

Republicans: Start owning it. You've survived for a long time on a parasitic segment in your party that hates minorities. Now the idiots are about to take over the asylum. At least admit that's the problem.

Trump is selling nothing but hate. And right now, that's good enough to be the frontrunner.

Election 2016 Preview: It Will Be as Bad as You Think

Thank you Donald Trump for delaying the inevitable nightmare this election season is going to become.

Oh he’s an ass. But at least he’s different.

Trump isn’t a Republican, he’s donated heavily to Democrats in the past and he certainly hasn’t put any thought into a comprehensive ideology. He is racist – the asinine demand for President Obama’s Birth certificate told me all I want to know. His rants against Mexicans (and women for that matter) resonate heavily with a small part of the GOP. Most Republican’s aren’t racist – but  when you’ve got 30 people on the ticket it doesn’t take much to make you a “frontrunner.” The Donald is an entertainer with a shitload of money. Should this bender of his not end in a parade in 17 months  he’s going to parlay this into something only he could dream up (Congressional apprentice anybody?)

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is doing his part to try and liven up the snoozefest that is the Democratic race. What’s not to like about a guy who has no problem describing himself as a Democratic Socialist and who is one of the leading white voices on income inequality issues despite coming from a state that is essentially a living Gap commercial?

 He has a social media engagement strategy that any marketer would be proud of – his message resonates with Millennials, and minorities – not something you’d expect from a guy who could certainly be living a beautiful life on Lake Champlain. Bernie cares about poor people – and us true progressives love the man.

But he’s too far left. This country isn’t ready for a guy who has no problem describing himself as a Democratic socialist.

No my left-leaning friends – we are stuck with Hillary.

She’s not in her husband’s league as a politician and though she has a firmly Democratic pedigree she doesn’t appear genuine enough to have the kind of credibility with the “everyman” that Bernie has. The unwritten motto of her campaign is “it’s MY turn damn it!” A La Bob Dole, another cure for Somnambulism.

The main appeal of Hillary – besides the secret desire we all have that her husband will assemble a staff of supermodels to assist him in performing his first man duties – is that the mere mention of her REALLY pisses off Republicans.

We all have that friend who posts the memes from Fox News daily on Facebook and you bite your tongue in response because you know darn well they want to start a fight. (I do understand the irony of most of you having come to this link from Facebook). To many Republicans – identifying yourself as a Democrat makes you a commie pinko who sits around and collaborates with his friends for new and inventive ways to get money from Government. We don’t work. We don’t contribute anything, and we basically hate America.

And we’re stupid…don’t forget stupid…

And..who is this Bill?

So we’re getting a grand chance to piss off our “friends” and in the end we’re going to take it. Republican’s emboldened by their wins in mid-terms need to remember that it’s not only the gray-hairs that vote in the big one. She has a very realistic chance – despite her continuing blunders – to go back to the White House and leave many American’s stewing. History hasn’t been kind to black people – but black men made it to elected office and the voting booth before white women. It may be Hillary’s “time.”

The GOP isn’t going to stand idly by and let us have all the fun. Once amateur hour is over we’re going to have the ultimate dream matchup as Jeb Bush will get the nominee and Republican’s will be able to remind us that his dumber brother managed to get TWO terms.

And make no mistake – Jeb is the “better” Bush. He’s far more articulate and has a much greater grasp of the issues than President W. One major thing he has is that he won’t completely take the Latino vote off the table for the GOP. He’s a formidable candidate. He’s much more like his Father than his brother – and that’s a good thing. George Sr. is a brilliant man who got caught paying the bill his processor left.

Decent candidates? Maybe. One has to wonder why this job has to be so focused on two families – but the fact that Hillary and Jeb are on a collision course speaks volumes about where we’re at in this country: Both parties are set to nominate the person who the other side hates the most. There will be no dialogue on issues that actually matter. There will be no progress in uniting this horribly divided country. 

Mitt Romney was right: 47% of the people aren’t going to vote for a Republican – but the other side is there are a similar number who won’t vote for a democrat. 3 to 5% of the people have the true power in  this country – the marginalized and never addressed independents.

No I won’t vote Republican – I’ll explain someday.

But for now – I just want to get this blog going again!!

Soccer tournament this weekend – should be good for some material!